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One Nail Away

And there are a bunch of hammers waiting to pound the 2023 season shut.


Thanks to Nicolas Michiels (above picture) and a few other hardy souls for making the trek to Texas.


DC lost Wednesday night (October 4) in Austin, 3-0. I figured that was completely it, we are out of the playoffs, but apparently it is mathematically possible for us to still qualify. However, eight to ten different results would have to break exactly right for this to happen, and that takes the odds well below 1%. You can read the nitty gritty details at the bottom of the blog if you are so interested, or just assume that you don’t need to make any playoff plans.


The right side of our defense decided not to show up in the first half, allowing uncontested goals first from Will Bruin in the 11th minute and Sebastian Driussi in the 21st minute. The rest of the half was uneventful.


Rooney made 3 substitutions at the half, and DC had some good chances, but couldn’t score. Austin goalie Brad Stuver made some nice saves. Matt Hedges then scored off a corner in the 64th minute over Eric Davis, who either failed to jump or was held down, against the run of play, and it was basically over. A few more chances, but nothing.


So one last regular season game, Saturday October 7 against NYCFC. Maybe DC can end on a positive note.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The nitty gritty details of what would have to happen for us to sneak into the playoffs. First, the current standings for the 8th and 9th Eastern Conference playoff spots (top two get in):


Team Points Games still to play

Chicago 40 2 Charlotte (H), NYCFC (A)

NYCFC 38 2 DC(A), Chicago (H)

Montreal 38 2 Portland (H), Columbus (A)

DC United 37 1 NYCFC(H)

NY Red Bulls 37 2 Toronto (H), Nashville (A)

Charlotte 36 3 Chicago (A), Miami (A), Miami (H)

Miami 33 3 Cincinnati (H), Charlotte (H), Charlotte (A)


So how could we possibly get the 9th spot? Here’s how:


1. Beat NYCFC Saturday October 7.


2. Have Chicago win or draw against NYCFC on the 21st, and preferably win or draw against Charlotte on the 7th, to help with #5. (Or have Chicago lose their last two games, but that makes #5 even harder.)


3. Have Montreal get 0 or 1 points from their last two games (against Portland and Columbus).


4. Have the NY Red Bulls get 3 points or less from their last two games (against Toronto and Nashville) and their goal differential must stay worse than ours; they are currently at -6 and we are at -3.


5. Have Charlotte get 4 points or less from their last 3 games (against Chicago and Miami twice).


6. Have Miami get 7 points or less from their last 3 games (against Cincinnati and Charlotte twice).


If ANY of these conditions aren’t met, we are out.

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